From the Book - Third edition.
Part I. the measurement solution exists : The challenge of intangibles : The alleged intangibles ; Yes, I mean anything ; The proposal: it's about decisions ; A "power tools" approach to measurement ; A guide to the rest of the book
An intuitive measurement habit: Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily : How an ancient Greek measured the size of the earth ; Estimating: be like Fermi ; Experiments: not just for adults ; Notes on what to learn from Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily
The illusion of intangibles: why immeasurables aren't : The concept of measurement ; The object of measurement ; The methods of measurement ; Economic objections to measurement ; The broader objection to the usefulness of "statistics" ; Ethical objections to measurement ; Reversing old assumptions
Part II. Before you measure : Clarifying the measurement problem : Toward a universal approach to measurement ; The unexpected challenge of defining a decision ; If you understand it, you can model it ; Getting the language right: what "uncertainty" and "risk" really mean ; An example of a clarified decision
Calibrated estimates: how much do you know now? : Calibration exercise ; Calibration trick: bet money (or even just pretend to) ; Further improvements on calibration ; Conceptual obstacles to calibration ; The effects of calibration training
Quantifying risk through modeling : How not to quantify risk ; Real risk analysis: the Monte Carlo ; An example of the Monte Carlo method and risk ; Tools and other resources for Monte Carlo simulations ; The risk paradox and the need for better risk analysis
Quantifying the value of information : The chance of being wrong and the cost of being wrong: expected opportunity loss ; The value of information for ranges ; Beyond yes/no: decisions on a continuum ; The imperfect world: the value of partial uncertainty reduction ; The epiphany equation: how the value of information changes everything ; Summarizing uncertainty, risk, and information value: the pre-measurements
Part III. Measurement methods : The transition: from what to measure to how to measure : Tools of observation: introduction to the instrument of measurement ; Decomposition ; Secondary research: assuming you weren't the first to measure it ; The basic methods of observation: if one doesn't work, try the next ; Measure just enough ; Consider the error ; Choose and design the instrument
Sampling reality: how observing some things tells us about all things : Building an intuition for ransom sampling: the jelly bean example ; A little about little samples: a beer brewer's approach ; Are small samples really "statistically significant"? ; When outliers matter most ; The easiest sample statistics ever ; A biased sample of sampling methods ; Experiment ; Seeing relationships in the data: an introduction to regression modeling
Bayes: adding to what you know now : The basics and Bayes ; Using your natural Bayesian instinct ; Heterogeneous benchmarking: a "brand damage" application ; Bayesian inversion for ranges: an overview ; The lessons of Bayes
Part IV. Beyond the basics : Preference and attitudes: the softer side of measurement : Observing opinions, values, and the pursuit of happiness ; A willingness to pay: measuring value via trade-offs ; Putting it all on the line: quantifying risk tolerance ; Quantifying subjective trade-offs: dealing with multiple conflicting preferences ; Keeping the big picture in mind: profit maximization versus purely subjective trade-offs
The ultimate measurement instrument: human judges : Homo absurdus: the weird reasons behind our decisions ; Getting organized: a performance evaluation example ; Surprisingly simple linear models ; How to standardize any evaluation: Rasch models ; Removing human inconsistency: the Lens model ; Panacea or placebo?: Questionable methods of measurement ; Comparing the methods ; Example: a scientist measures the performance of a decision model
New measurement instruments for management : The twenty-first-century tracker: keeping tabs with technology ; Measuring the world: the Internet as an instrument ; Prediction markets: a dynamic aggregation of opinions
A universal measurement method: applied information economics : Bringing the pieces together ; Case: the value of the system that monitors your drinking water ; Case: forecasting fuel for the Marine Corps ; Case: measuring the value of ACORD Standards ; Ideas for getting started: a few final examples ; Summarizing the philosophy
Appendix: Calibration tests (and their answers).
Intangibles and the challenge
An intuitive measurement habit : Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily
The illusion of intangibles : why immeasurables aren't
Clarifying the measurement problem
Calibrated estimates : how much do you know now?
Measuring risk through modeling
Measuring the value of information
The transition : from what to measure to how to measure
Sampling reality: how observing some things tells us about all things
Bayes : adding to what you know now
Preference and attitudes : the softer side of measurement
The ultimate measurement instrument : human judges
New measurement instruments for management
A universal measurement methods : applied information economics.
The intangibles and the challenge
An intuitive measurement habit : Eratosthenes, Enrico, & Emily
The illusion of intangibles : why immeasurables aren't
Clarifying the measurement problem
Calibrated estimates : how much do you know now?
Measuring risk : introduction to the Monte Carlo simulation
Measuring the value of information
The transition : from what measure to how to measure
Sampling reality : how observing some things tells us about all things
Bayes : adding to what you know now
Preference and attitudes : the softer side of measurement
The ultimate measurement instrument : human judges
New measurement instruments for management
A universal measurement method : applied information economics.
